Announced since the recognition by the United States of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara by President Trump on the 10th of December, the visit of a High-Level U.S-Israeli delegation to Rabat on December 22 is a turning point for the Kingdom in its diplomatic strategy, according to many observers of the case. Led by Donald Trump’s special adviser, Jared Kushner, the delegation was received by King Mohammed VI at the Royal Palace, before signing a tripartite agreement ratified by the American envoy, the head of the Moroccan government, Saad Eddine El Othmani, and Israel’s national security adviser, Meir Ben-Shabbat.
A strong support for the Sahara Case
For Rabat, the American recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara constitutes a major turning point after several decades of bogging down the conflict and the successive failures of mediation plans conducted under the auspices of the United Nations. Morocco initiated in 2007 a vast autonomy plan qualified on several occasions by the UN body as “serious and credible”, but the Polisario Frente, backed by neighbor Algeria, has always refused that independence would no longer be an option in the negotiations between the parties. After having exhausted several mediators appointed by the UN Secretary General, discussions have not been able to succeed in the past decade.
The support of the United States, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is, according to several experts, a “decisive asset” for Rabat. The deal negotiated by Mohammed VI with Donald Trump also includes a massive U.S. investment component towards the Kingdom, with a total envelope of nearly $US 3 billion over three years. Among the sectors targeted by the Americans, tourism, energy, but also trade and industry, especially in the Sahara, where an American consulate should open in the seaside town of Dakhla. Furthermore, the US and Morocco enjoy a strong cooperation in security matters, Rabat being a stronghold of Institutional and Macro-economic stability in a troubled North Africa.
Resumption of diplomatic activity with Israël
At the same time, the tripartite agreement signed in Rabat has reactivated diplomatic and economic relations between Morocco and Israel, a country with a population of nearly 700,000 people originally from the Kingdom. However, Morocco managed to reiterate during this agreement its commitment to the “two-state solution” and reaffirmed the special status to be granted to Jerusalem. King Mohammed VI of Morocco, who brokered the global deal personally with Donald Trump over the last three years, is also the Chairman of the “Al Quds Committee”, an organization overseeing the special status of the Holy city.
In addition, in the wake of this tripartite agreement, Rabat affirmed its readiness to “continue its good offices in order to find common ground with the Palestinians”, in line with the long tradition of mediation of the Kingdom in the Middle East conflict. Since the mid-1960s, Morocco has been campaigning for a “two-state” solution and has played the “Honest Broker” between the parties, notably during the Camp David agreements and the Oslo process.
Rebooting the economy
According to several experts, the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara by the world’s first superpower may act as a trigger for a faster resolution of this long-lasting but low intensity conflict. This comes at very crucial timing for the region, in a time when North Africa needs to reboot its economy after the pandemic. Furthermore, the global stimulus investment plan granted by the US to Morocco is considered as instrumental to strengthen the Kingdom’s position as an economic and trade Hub between Europe and Africa.
Also, it is worthy to note that the decision undertaken by the Trump Administration at the end of his mandate is very unlikely to be reversed, despite claims by Algeria, who is supporting the rebel movement of Polisario. Indeed, all the Us Administration has already replaced maps of Morocco including western Sahara and the American representative to the United Nations Security council has already informed the institution that the US now recognize the formerly disputed zone as an entire part of Morocco. This game-changer move by the US would likely open a new diplomatic sequence for the Moroccan Kingdom, where Morocco returns at the center of the conversation in the region.